quarta-feira, março 12, 2008

Porque é que Obama já ganhou (um contributo para a péssima cobertura jornalistica das eleições dos EUA)

Hillary, it's time to pull the plug on yourself by Robert (Dailykos)

After the Mississippi primary tonight, here are the numbers:

There have been 45 contests to date. Michigan and Florida are NOT included in this number as they either have yet to be decided or, as I feel should happen, will be excluded for violating DNC rules agreed to by the candidates. I count the Texas primary and Texas caucus as separate contests; consider it a charitable move in Hillary's favor. (Obama won more delegates in Texas.)

So here's what we have in those 45 contests:

RobertInWisconsin's diary :: ::
In 45 contests to date, Obama has won 30 of them, Hillary 15.

Of Obama's 30 wins, he has received 60 % or more of the vote in 18 of them; and in 24 of the 30 he has received 55 % or more of the vote.

Hillary has received 60 % or more of the vote exactly once in 45 contests.

It is frankly embarrassing to her campaign that she has received 40 % or less of the vote in 25 of 45 contests. That is mind-boggling. Further, she has dipped below 35 % a whopping 16 times.

Obama has about a 165-delegate lead in the pledged delegates. He leads by about 133 in overall delegates. Both may go up further after the dust settles in recent contests.

Obama leads in the popular vote by nearly 900,000 after tonight's results. Even if you include Florida (which you should not), Obama leads by more than 500,000.

It's time to come right out and say it: There is no way Hillary can win the nomination without outright stealing it.

It's time to shut this thing down.

Hillary needs to do the right thing for once, and withdraw.

Barring that miracle, Bill Richardson needs to get off his fanny and do exactly what he said he'd do last week - endorse the person who has more delegates post-March 4. Al Gore and John Edwards need to hold a joint press conference tomorrow to endorse Obama and say to Hillary in front of the world, 'It's over.'

Obama needs to pull that 50-superdelegate card out of his back pocket and play it for the world to see.

Enough is enough, because if you think the Clintons have sunk to the lowest depth with Geraldine Ferraro's Strom Thurmond imitation the last couple days, you have another thing coming.

Look, the handwriting isn't just on the wall. It's on the floor. It's on the ceiling. It's on the chimney, the stairwell, the front door, the windows, the back door, and it's on the garage.

The handwriting is in blinding neon in 100-foot tall letters.

45 contests have been decided. 2 broke the rules and the rules ought to stand. Only 10 scheduled contests remain. Hillary will be fortunate to win half of them. Obama's worst-case scenario is that he will win half of them and after all ten remaining contests, it's most likely that Obama will hold a comparable lead in pledged delegates, overall delegates, and an advantage in the popular vote very similar to today.

It's time to face the music, end the drama, shut it down, and let's move on already.